Recently, Russian propaganda has resorted to IPSO – that’s how it can be stated – which can be conventionally called “Just a little more and we will win.” The information machine of the Kremlin at full capacity disperses a wave of disinformation that Russia will win the war with Ukraine in a little while. For example, the enemy is “broken”, there are few of them left, our successes are great, etc. However, such manipulation speaks of the exact opposite – Russia is one step closer to breaking down and becoming exhausted. Recently, Russian resources were used to reinforce this IPSO, and it was suggested that 30% of the mobilization potential remained in Ukraine. Why this is a lie – further in the material.
False
Literally, the propaganda spread the following information about the statistics of the mobilization resource of Ukraine (further in the original language): “Under the most fantastic schedule, the people of Bandera had a mob resource of 1,970,000 fighters in September 2022 (those who are already there and who can be called up in the future as of September 21, 2022 g.). No more. With an ideal schedule.
Over the past week, the total number of those who are fighting and who will be able to fight has decreased by another 9,000 killed (by 100 more than last week, according to our pessimistic calculations from summaries of both sides) and amounted to 1,445,100 people. At this rate of utilization, the enemy can be defeated by the end of the summer of 2024. The Nazis will have no one to fight.
Ninety-five weeks ago, we started from the figure of 1,970,000 people, who could theoretically be put into service. Now this figure is 1,445,100 people. That is, the path to complete victory over the Nazis has been completed in 95 weeks by 91% (since September 21, 2022, 546,200 Nazis have been destroyed, out of the 600,000 required for a guaranteed victory, i.e. 30% of the total number).”
It is also difficult to understand the logic of propagandists’ calculations, the sources on which they relied are also unknown. It is not clear why the figure of 600 thousand is defined as a sign of victory? That is, the remaining 1.2 million will no longer resist?
However, the main thing for the analysis are two facts, so to speak – that the mobilization reserve in Ukraine is at best 1.9 million, and that 546,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been destroyed at the moment. In fact, both facts are false.
According to the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense, during the week (from July 8 to July 14), another 995,224 citizens updated their credentials through the Reserve+ application, TCC or TsNAP. In total, as of July 14, 2024, the number of updates reached more than 4 million. http://surl.li/mqjvui
That is, these are conscripts who can potentially join the ranks of the Armed Forces. Yes, among them there are those who have different deferments, limited eligibility, who have not yet reached the age of 25. But, if we are talking about the possible potential, then it is at least twice as large as the figure that the propagandists talk about.
It is actually confirmed by the data of a study conducted by the Texty.org resource. According to resource experts, according to their calculations, only the mobilization reserve (as of March 2023 – the date of the study) amounted to 4.88 million people. http://surl.li/pqipii
As for losses, on February 25, 2024, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Ukraine’s losses in the war with Russia at that time amounted to 31 military personnel. http://surl.li/wsaqyi
This figure is comparable to what Western experts called before the president’s statement – they estimated the total losses of Ukraine at the level of 100-120 thousand soldiers killed and wounded. http://surl.li/ekfhlc
And taking into account the classic ratio of killed to injured as 1 to 3, we have actual confirmation of the president’s words and the lies of Russian propagandists.